Monsoon Prediction 2021 India PDF Download
a) Southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (96 to 104 % of Long Period Average (LPA)).
b) Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the countryas a whole is likely to be 101% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1961-2010 is 88 cm.
c) The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the four homogeneous rainfall is most likely to be Normal over Northwest India (92-108%) and South Peninsula (93-107%). Seasonal rainfall is most likely to be below normal over North east India (<95%) and above normal over Central India (>106%).
d) The southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the monsoon core zone, which consists of most of the rainfed agriculture regions in the country is most likely to be Above Normal (>106% of LPA).
e) Monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be well distributed spatially (Fig.1). Most parts of the country is expected to receive normal to above normal rainfall during the season.
f) The latest global model forecasts indicate the prevailing neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and possibility of development of negative IOD conditions over the Indian Ocean during the mon soonseason. As sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins. IMD will issue the forecast for the July rainfall in the last week of June 2021.